Asian Review of Books

From: Subject: Asian Review of Books Date: Tue, 6 Sep 2005 09:39:18 +0800 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; type="text/html"; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0026_01C5B2C6.DA258D50" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2900.2180 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0026_01C5B2C6.DA258D50 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: http://www.asianreviewofbooks.com/arb/article.php?article=588 Asian Review of Books

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ALSO = SEE
The=20 IHT
The=20 Economist
TIME

More=20 reviews by Kerry Brown

Jasper=20 Becker's Website

Readers may = purchase reviewed=20 books from Paddyfield.com, Asia's online bookseller.

North American readers may prefer to buy US editions = from Powells.com.

Rogue = Regime: Kim=20 Jong Il and the Looming Threat of North Korea by = Jasper=20 Becker

I visited North Korea for a week in 2000, = a=20 little after the great detente between Kim Dae-Jong of South = Korea, and=20 the Dear Leader of the North, Kim Jong-Il. It was at the fag end = of the=20 Clinton Presidency, and there was the real possibility that change = at last=20 was to come to the world's final Stalinist regime. Even so, little = could=20 have prepared me for the largely car-less, advert-less, and -- = after ten=20 at night -- light-less city that is Pyongyang. Called by some a = Leninist=20 Theme park, and by others a socialist Gotham City, Pyongyang = combines=20 surprising modernity (the city had to be rebuilt after being = levelled to=20 the ground in the 1950s Korean War) with evident grinding poverty. = It is=20 also a city devoid of the old and the disabled, who are shipped = out to the=20 countryside. Pyongyang is, after all, the model city for a regime = that=20 proclaims itself creator of a socialist paradise on earth, where = there is=20 no for any deemed unsuitable or superfluous.

JASPER = BECKER is=20 well placed to write about the current DPRK. He has been watching = China,=20 its closest ally and friend, since the 1980s, and visited North = Korea=20 several times. He has talked to the small constituency of North = Korean=20 watchers in Europe, China, South Korea and the US. And he applies = a=20 journalist's scepticism with academic rigour. His thesis is a = simple one.=20 We all know that the Great Leader, Kim Il Sung, creator of the = modern=20 DPRK, was revered and loved by his people until his death in 1994. = We know=20 that he was worshipped, to the extent that he is still proclaimed = North=20 Korea's President in perpetuity. What we didn't perhaps know, and = what=20 Becker maps out, was that from way back in the 1970s, his eldest = son was=20 already building up a power base, wrestling control from his = revered=20 father. And Kim Jong Il, from the word go, was no reformer. =

So the=20 consoling talk over the last few years of the current Dear Leader = being a=20 closet reformer like China's Deng Xiaoping or the USSR's Gorbachev = is, as=20 Becker makes clear, wishful thinking. There is no real evidence = that Kim=20 Jong Il shows the slightest interest in opening up North Korea to = the=20 outside world, and, in fact, what few clues there are show that, = both in=20 words and actions, Kim is very much the opposite. The few = concessions the=20 regime has made in the last decade have been either gestures, or = laughable=20 ineffectual. The wealthy Chinese, Yang Bing, who put his money = where his=20 mouth was in 2002 and opened up North Korea's newest and biggest=20 `development zone' was rewarded for his pains by being slammed = into jail=20 in China, his project mothballed. Being friends with North Korea = neatly=20 proves Groucho Marx's wisdom that a friend in need is a damned = nuisance.=20

There is one certainty. Kim Jong Il is motivated first and = last by=20 his own need to survive. For that, he has had to plough what = little=20 resources North Korea has (a lot of this raised through the sale = if WMD=20 and drugs) into one of the world's largest armies. The strategy is = simple.=20 If the US does look at attacking the regime, it will not go down = without a=20 colossal loss of life. Estimates the last time the two sides = nearly went=20 to war in 1994 said that about half a million would die in the = first week=20 of conflict. That's not factoring the real joker in the pack: the = impact=20 of any nuclear weapons the regime has tucked away. North Korea, = unlike=20 Iraq, has built a formidable reputation as a rouge regime that is = willing=20 to do anything to preserve itself. Perversely it has applied = Nixon's=20 crazed gunman thesis: don't muck with us, or we'll take you all = down. This=20 has proved a richly rewarding negotiating tactic, allowing one of = the=20 world's poorest, most backward countries to frequently grab the = headlines=20 and dominate the attention of the most powerful members of the UN. =

Becker's most interesting chapters are on glimpses into = the life=20 of this enigmatic, hidden supreme commander. Kim Jong Il is famed = for his=20 platform heels and his hairstyle. But he has managed to charm and = impress=20 many of the western statesmen who have seen him. Becker is not so=20 gullible. The anecdotal evidence of the Dear Leader's colossal = expenditure=20 on his luxurious lifestyle, while up to three million of his own = people=20 have died of starvation, is consistent and overwhelming. Italian = and=20 Japanese chefs have witnessed his gourmet extravagance. Two South = Korean=20 actors were kidnapped from Hong Kong to service his hobby of = producing=20 films. Russian and Chinese women have been supplied to his `dance = parties'=20 and his `boudoir.' One four-day party left his officials at the = edge of=20 despair -- none could depart before the Dear Leader went off to = rest.=20

Ten years ago, the US appeased the DPRK because the theory = accepted then was that the regime was on its last legs. They = entered into=20 an energy-giving project with the regime, certain that by the time = the=20 reactors they talked of building were ready to be activated, the = DPRK=20 would be long gone. In 1998, during the worst parts of the famine, = there=20 was a good chance that this would happen. The Koreans themselves = described=20 their predicament then as the crossroads of life and death. Good = Stalinist=20 that he is, Kim Jong Il used a simple and time honoured method to = make=20 sure that he didn't disappear -- turning the full apparatus of the = state=20 onto the people, rounding up any likely dissidents, and either=20 incarcerating them or killing them (which in some of the prison = camps=20 amounted to the same thing). This effectively made him the = country's only=20 possible leader.

Any visitor to the DPRK now would have = difficulty=20 assessing what the read feelings of the people are towards their = leader.=20 Underneath the hyperbole and the propaganda, there have been timid = signs=20 of revolt -- graffiti against the regime seen on Pyongyang walls, = rumours=20 of coups against the Leader, even assassination attempts. Becker's = thesis=20 about what motivates Kim is very credible. But perhaps the one = thing he=20 doesn't take into account is the sheer unpredictability of the = man, and=20 the remote possibility that he might surprise everyone by = overturning the=20 whole system one day, even in a fit of pique. We have to hope so. = The=20 alternative is too grim to countenance.

Kerry=20 Brown
04/09/2005

Dr Kerry Brown works in the ASEAN and = Oceania Group=20 in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office. The views = expressed=20 here are the author's own, and do not reflect British = government=20 policy.

Views = expressed by the=20 reviewers are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views or = policies of=20 the publication.
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